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Tuesday, 28 September 2010

Is it possible that good policing may be an influence here?

This a map of London showing the the levels of deprivation in each Ward based on the average score of the Lower Super Output Areas scores calculated for the English Indices of Deprivation 2007. As I have discussed in previous post criminology theories suggest that the higher the deprivation the higher the crime. So as I have carried out my violence analysis at Ward level I can investigate if there is correlation between my deprivation values for each Ward and my various incident occurrence values. First I am analysing robbery incidents.

The correlation between the two arrays of scores is 0.58 but goes up to 0.66 if the West End outliers are removed. More interesting is to plot the two set of values against each other to determine a linear regression line. This line has an equation that describes its slop and where it bisects the y axis. It also has an  R squared value or coefficient of determination. This shows the degree of influence that deprivation has on the occurrence of robbery incidents (to put it simply). See here for a more detail. In this case it is 0.34 or just over third.

Now each Ward has a new value that can be measured above or below the line by using the equation to determine the score if it were on the line and subtracting that score from it actual score. This new score can be mapped to show those Wards that have a higher and lower score than predicted by the line.

We know from previous post that entertainment venues has a high influence on the occurrence of violence, including robbery, which explains some of the high scores. The Wards that do not have that "excuse" and have high scores are therefore interesting. So are the Wards with lower than predicted scores, especially those shown in green. Is it possible that good policing may be an influence here?

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