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Wednesday, 23 December 2009

Likely victim and likely offender

I will discuss theories about the occurrence of crime in more detail in later blogs because they explain non-randomness, variation and a degree of predictability of where, when, to whom and by whom crime is committed.

To me the most important element in whether a crime is committed at a time, at a location and on a victim or commodity is the existence of a "likely offender". Now "likely offenders" differ with different types of crime. This is logical when you think about it, you would not expect a con-artist to be the same type of person as a street robber.

Profiles of likely offenders can be quite specific. Just using age and gender allows a relatively small percentage of the population to be identified as likely offenders for street robberies in the borough under analysis. (see graphs). Interestingly there is a matching profile of likely victims

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